1. The decline in GDP growth
In the economic growth prospects globally 10/2015 report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) commented: "The global economy next year will more optimistic growth with expecting an average growth in long-term, but the return to the period of strong growth and synchronization is very difficult. "
The forecast number for global GDP growth that the fund figure out is 3.6%, higher than 3.1% this year and approximately average 3.5% period 1980-2014.Meanwhile, on 10/12, the United Nations (UN) released a report on the situation and prospects of global economic growth which forecasting for the world economy in 2016 was only 2.9%.
The United Nation said that the "headwinds" will continue all around the world, especially in emerging markets, who have attracted investors to seek higher returns when the Fed has not raised interest rates.To 2016, there is the still lingering anxiety-relate to the slow growth in China.
According to United Nation experts, although the US economic prospect is better but the raise of USD will cause damage to the exporters in 2016 and the decrease in oil prices reduce the investment in global energy sector.
Most recently, on 23/12, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced lower forecasts world GDP growth in 2016 from 3.6% of the previous forecast to 3.3% and do not exclude some areas could fall into deflation.
The OECD said that in 2016 there will be a divergence in economic growth all around the world with two trends: strengthen the recovery in the developing contries, with average growth of about 2% compared to just over 1% in the period 2010 - 2014; sharp deceleration in emerging countries, with the growth decrease about 2.4% comparing to 5% in the period 2010-2014.
2. Prolonged economic crisis in China
According to the IMF, the most important variable in 2016 is China. Growth in this country has dropped below 7% in III quarter/ 2015, for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008. Many developing countries depend heavily on trade with China, such as Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam.
Besides, the demand of the world about Chinese products are no longer growing at a fast pace as before. And it also does not need to upgrade infrastructure urgently. Like his predecessor, President of China Xi Jinping are having a very difficult period of time, when driving economic growth based on consumer direction.
The IMF predicted that in next year China's economy will grow 6.3%, lower than 6.8% this year. This figure may be acceptable, though still below the target of the country's leaders in place.
Even the Chief of Citigroup Global Economist Willem Buiter had more pessimistic look when assumed that the rapid growth of China's economy has a high risk and that can slump the ecomony which caused by excessing production capacity and high debt ratio.
At the same time, Mr. Buiter warned that the economy of Russia and Brazil is depressing, the sharp decline in the growth rate in China will pull the other emerging markets to follow. He said the most of the rich countries is less dependent on exports to China, they "will not be a recession, but just slower growth."
3. Emerging economies "flourishes"
In the report World Economic Prospect in 2016 published by the Conference Board on 9/11, this economic organization identified that, in 2015, many developing markets hold key positions which hat to suffer a deluge of external and internal headwinds.This is the 5th consecutive years the recovery of emerging economies stalled.
To 2016, emerging economies will be a slight improvement, may grow 3.5% and the situation will get in a better trend, the average growth rate 4% in the period of 2016 - in 2020, before turning down to 3.6% in the period 2021-2025.
The report also points out, while the growth rate of developing economies largely depend and the needs of domestic consumers, the growth rate of labor market and housing of emerging economies continue depends on fluctuations in commodity prices and energy as well as investment flows from the outside.
However, other leading countries in the BRICS Group of the emerging economies are facing a difficult period, except for India as the country has a low level of adherence to the global economy. Economic crisis, social, political are increasing seriously in Brazil, while Russia is only just out of the crisis in Summer 2015 and will grow again slowly.
In developing countries, these countries achieved the impressive performance and 5-7% growth are raw material importer.
4. The US stable economy
In an article published in the French newspaper Le Monde (The World) issued on 1/1 statemented that, in 2016, the economic growth of developing countries led by the US will be very positive in the general context that the recovery economy have tended to slow down.
Specifically, in the US job market will be significantly improved, domestic demand was driven by household consumption through increasing purchasing power, higher wages and increasing in investment from residential areas.
Meanwhile, the industrial sector will be a negative impact from a strong dollar, trade could be big losses due to US goods become more expensive on world markets. Six years after the US economy started to recover, the first signs of a slowdown have emerged, such as industrial production declines or reduced profit businesses.
In an article published on Bloomberg dated 5/11, author Peter Coy judged that the US will continue to surpass other countries in the group of rich countries in 2016. From misery index (Misery Index), the combination of inflation and the latest unemployment and rate at 5.1% in October, the US economy as traditionally stable since the 1950s.
According to Liz Anne Sonders - Head of Investment Strategy at Charles Schwab, said: "Depression comes from excess. We are still in a state of recovery. We're not even in a state of growth. "
At the same time, the increase in consumer spending can make enterprises bravely investing to upgrade the plant, equipment, and software. These upgrades should have done long ago. Torsten Slok - The chief economist of Deutsche Bank, wrote to clients in October: "Both consumption and investment are too weak during this period of growth. Therefore, I continue to believe that many years until the next recession.
5. European economy is hard to "boom"
Unlike the US economy, which has grown slowly but steadily since 2009, the European economy is expected to face much more difficult when the economic growth of the region reach only about 1.9% of GDP , with weak population growth could hardly lead to an explosion.
The European Central Bank may cut interest rates to negative short-term besides refugee crisis in Europe is a new strain of the EU.
Strange as it may stimulate the short-term economic growth, at least in Germany. Malte Rieth - Head of Global Economic Forecast Institute for Economic Research in Germany (German acronym is DIW) in Berlin, said: "We thought it would boost the GDP."
DIW calculated that the government will subsidize the refugees, and they will spend, mainly for goods and domestic services, helping GDP increase by 0.1% to 0.2%.
2016 may be uncomfortable for Russia as the country suffered a series of economic sanctions and the loss of revenue from lower oil prices. IMF forecasts Russian economy will continue to go down in 2016, but the pace will slow down.
According to the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies of France (Insee), the stimulating factors recover the European economy in the coming period as household consumption and the growth of investment flows by penny credit increase for the first time since more than three years, will become more evenly, reaching 0.4% quarterly average.
Consumption in Germany increased; Italy came out of a recession lasting in three years and is creating more jobs; Spanish economic growth in a sustainable manner. As for France, the terrorist attacks in Paris on 13/11 as 0.1% decline in the growth rate of its GDP, however, the recovery will become clearer in 2016.
In addition, Forbes magazine rated the eurozone will grow somewhat better than Asia. The economies associated with the exploitation of natural resources is perhaps the most dismal area.
